Scoring rules measure the deviation between a forecast, which assigns degrees of confidence to various events, and reality. Strictly proper scoring rules have the property that for any forecast, the mathematical expectation of the score of a forecast $p$ by the lights of $p$ is strictly better than the mathematical expectation of any other forecast $q$ by the lights of $p$. It has recently been shown that any strictly proper scoring rule that is continuous on the probabilities has the property that the score for any forecast that does not satisfy the axioms of probability is strictly dominated by the score for some probabilistically consistent forecast. I shall show that in the case of a finite score, we only need continuity on the re...
If a decision maker whose behavior conforms to the max-min expected utility model is faced with a sc...
De Finetti introduced the concept of coherent previsions and conditional pre-visions through a gambl...
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in thi...
Scoring rules measure the deviation between a probabilistic forecast and reality. Strictly proper sc...
This note gives an easily verified necessary and sufficient condition for one probability forecaster...
Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasting sche...
Proper and strictly proper scoring rules provide a rigorous method for evaluating the accuracy of a ...
We give a new example for a proper scoring rule motivated by the form of Anderson-Darling distance o...
Scoring rules measure the accuracy or epistemic utility of a credence assignment. A significant lite...
Scoring rules measure the deviation between a credence assignment and reality. Probabilism holds tha...
Strictly proper scoring rules, including the Brier score and the logarithmic score, are standard met...
Proper scoring rules can be used to incentivize a forecaster to truthfully report her private belie...
<p>De Finetti introduced the concept of coherent previsions and conditional previsions through a gam...
The evaluation of probabilistic forecasts plays a central role both in the interpretation and in the...
On the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and total...
If a decision maker whose behavior conforms to the max-min expected utility model is faced with a sc...
De Finetti introduced the concept of coherent previsions and conditional pre-visions through a gambl...
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in thi...
Scoring rules measure the deviation between a probabilistic forecast and reality. Strictly proper sc...
This note gives an easily verified necessary and sufficient condition for one probability forecaster...
Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasting sche...
Proper and strictly proper scoring rules provide a rigorous method for evaluating the accuracy of a ...
We give a new example for a proper scoring rule motivated by the form of Anderson-Darling distance o...
Scoring rules measure the accuracy or epistemic utility of a credence assignment. A significant lite...
Scoring rules measure the deviation between a credence assignment and reality. Probabilism holds tha...
Strictly proper scoring rules, including the Brier score and the logarithmic score, are standard met...
Proper scoring rules can be used to incentivize a forecaster to truthfully report her private belie...
<p>De Finetti introduced the concept of coherent previsions and conditional previsions through a gam...
The evaluation of probabilistic forecasts plays a central role both in the interpretation and in the...
On the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and total...
If a decision maker whose behavior conforms to the max-min expected utility model is faced with a sc...
De Finetti introduced the concept of coherent previsions and conditional pre-visions through a gambl...
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in thi...