Probability

Risk and risk assessment are part of our daily life. Both professionally and privately we make many decisions and risk analysis is an integral part of this. Risk is often defined as the probability that an event will occur, multiplied by the consequences of the event. This definition may be rather simplistic as it undervalues the risk of events with very small probabilities but very large consequences (for example pandemics or nuclear disasters). However, it does correctly identify the two main components of any risk evaluation: the probability of occurrence and the magnitude of the consequences. In this chapter the concept of probability is briefly explored