Late systolic central hypertension as a predictor of incident heart failure : the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background: Experimental studies demonstrate that high aortic pressure in late systole relative to early systole causes greater myocardial remodeling and dysfunction, for any given absolute peak systolic pressure. Methods and Results: We tested the hypothesis that late systolic hypertension, defined as the ratio of late (last one third of systole) to early (first two thirds of systole) pressure-time integrals (PTI) of the aortic pressure waveform, independently predicts incident heart failure (HF) in the general population. Aortic pressure waveforms were derived from a generalized transfer function applied to the radial pressure waveform recorded noninvasively from 6124 adults. The late/early systolic PTI ratio (L/ESPTI) was assessed as a predictor of incident HF during median 8.5 years of follow-up. The L/ESPTI was predictive of incident HF (hazard ratio per 1% increase= 1.22; 95% CI= 1.15 to 1.29; P58.38%) was more predictive of HF than the presence of hypertension. After adjustment for each other and various predictors of HF, the HR associated with hypertension was 1.39 (95% CI= 0.86 to 2.23; P=0.18), whereas the HR associated with a high L/E was 2.31 (95% CI=1.52 to 3.49; P