[Messersmith, G.S.], [Washington]. To Sir Walford Selby, Lisbon.

Duties in Washington heavy; pleasantly established in old house in Georgetown; Nazi Party control of Army means when Germany wants to move army will move; growing cooperation among Czechoslovakia, Austria, and Hungary may hasten German move; Germany needs foodstuffs and raw materials, particularly Rumanian oil, from Southeastern Europe; Austria would no longer deliver ore or food stuffs to Germany except for payment; arrest of [Josef] Tavs in Austria infuriated Hitler, but he could make no move without army backing, which is why coordination of Army was necessary; independent Austria necessary for peace of Europe; hopes Schuschnigg can hold out; German fortifications on Western frontier immobilize France and England; blockade of Northern ports not serious for Germany if she has access to Southeastern Europe; U.S. interested in maintaining democratic institutions, but cannot pursue active foreign policy at present, because of adverse public opinion; Japan finding more resistance in China than she had expected; even if Austria falls, Germany may not find her way through Balkans easy; Rome-Berlin axis badly bent by German demands on Austria