[Messersmith, G.S.], Vienna. To Raymond H. Geist, Berlin.

Was interested in Geist's summary of German situation in letter of Jan. 11; hopes Geist is continuing to keep Department informed; new organization, Oestmarkische Verein, planning to carry on Nazi activities in Austria; movement stimulated by [Odo] Neust??dter-St??rmer and [Eduard] Glaise-Horstenau; organization hopes to get into Popular Front and work from within; Chancellor is in command of situation and knows how to deal with it; Neust??dter-St??rmer will probably be removed from cabinet; Glaise-Horstenau part of the deal in July 11 accord and it will be more difficult to get rid of him; negotiations of trade agreement with Germany a failure; Germany wishes to export to Austria mostly armament materials, at the expense of the Austrian treasury, or manufactured goods, at the expense of Austrian industry; Germany wants Austrian agricultural products and Austria eager to sell, but she wants to be paid for them; negotiations might assume form which would endanger U.S. interests; has been busy trying to protect them, and thinks he has succeeded; Europe passed through real crisis in December and early January; German Army and Navy exerted restraining influence on Hitler, and determined attitude of France and England helped; the "gentleman's agreement" between London and Rome also had deterrent effect; crisis ended with reassurances Hitler gave to [Andr??] Fran??ois-Poncet at reception in Berlin on Jan. 11; Germany may make concessions now to save as much of her position as possible, but no confidence should be placed in such concessions; heard on good authority [Hermann] Goering's real reason for going to Rome was to get Mussolini's opinion on possibility of "kicking Hitler upstairs" into presidency and making him (Goering) Chancellor; he would doubtless have support of Reichswehr; Goering less radical and more reasonable than Hitler, but any government headed by him would still be threat to peace of Europe, for he is full of resentments, has expansionist ideas, and is a Fascist at heart; believes 1937 will be difficult and perhaps decisive year; requests information on exact cause of General [Hans von] Seeckt's death