Risk model, with identified key risks

Deliverable D9.4 of the Nunataryuk project. This report presents first an overview of a theoretical risk framework, including a Compass Model and Methodological Flow Chart, developed to help facilitate the gathering of coastal risks in a systematic way, to make assessments and apply different tools and analysis to contribute to more effective risk management at the local level in Arctic coastal communities. The development of this framework is motivated by the fact that thawing permafrost creates risks to the environment, economy, and culture of affected Arctic coastal communities, and more effective identification of these risks and the inclusion of the societal context and co-production with local stakeholders can provide the basis for effective risk management, reduced risks, and a more sustainable future (Larsen et al. 2021). The risk framework and modelling was developed during the Nunataryuk project period and has provided the framework for identifying key risks from permafrost thaw in case study regions along the Arctic Coast; Ilulissat, West Greenland; Longyearbyen, Svalbard; Beaufort Sea Region, Yukon Coast and Mackenzie River Delta; and Northern Sakha (Yakutiya), Russia. We first demonstrate the use of the risk framework by presenting a generalized risk analysis that highlights five key hazards of permafrost thaw, as well as key physical processes/drivers that lead to physical, chemical and biological impacts that create five key hazards. Secondly, we present a risk diagram (which will appear in the Atlas of Permafrost in 2023), which shows the impacts of permafrost thaw along the Arctic coast. Next, we present local specific risk data from research conducted within the four case study areas, including results from a survey. A central element within the risk framework presented here is the notion of the dual dimensions of risk – the recognition of risk as both physical and socially constructed – and the importance of risk perceptions of permafrost affected Arctic communities, which facilitate the coproduction of knowledge. Overall, our case studies show that permafrost thaw in local communities along the Arctic coast has negative impacts for all of the central quality of life domains, with risks to infrastructure and built environment, economy and planning being particularly challenging and necessitating critical trade-offs for many local stakeholders, including from private and public sectors