Demystifying the Economic Growth and CO₂ Nexus in Fujian’s Key Industries Based on Decoupling and LMDI Model

Faced with peaking carbon emissions and carbon neutrality goals, low-carbon transformation has become an important part of China’s current economic construction. Fujian is one of the provinces with the fastest economic development in China and the core area of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. Therefore, its low-carbon economic development path is of great significance to China. This study focused on the key carbon emission industries in Fujian Province, using energy and carbon emission data from industrial sectors in Fujian Province from 2005 to 2019 to establish the Tapio decoupling model. Then, we decomposed the carbon emission drivers of each industry using the LMDI decomposition method, and finally analyzed the decoupling efforts made by each carbon emission driver on the basis of the Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition model. The results showed that (1) carbon emissions in Fujian Province were mainly concentrated in the manufacturing industry and the electricity, heat, gas, water production and supply industries; (2) to date, some industries in Fujian Province have achieved the decoupling of carbon emissions, but the decoupling status was not stable; and (3) both energy structure and energy intensity have facilitated increasing decoupling efforts for carbon emissions. Industrial structure has contributed less to decoupling, and population size has not yet to make an impact on decoupling. Therefore, in the future, Fujian Province should increase expenditure on green technology research and development to improve energy efficiency and gradually use renewable energy to replace fossil energy, continue to adjust the industrial structure, and increase the government’s supervision on corporate carbon emissions