Oil and the 'Dutch Disease' : - The Case of the United Arab Emirates

According to the Dutch Disease core model a boom in natural resources will eventually lead to a shift of production between sectors: from tradable goods to non-tradable goods. The authors found it interesting to research if United Arab Emirates has been a subject to any of the effects caused by the disease, due to the oil boom during the 1970s and the huge development that has appeared in the country. If the United Arab Emirates would be a vic-tim of the disease the decline in exports of the natural resource will result in a decline in the non-oil tradable goods which will affect the country negatively. Furthermore, the disease can also make it more difficult for the country to deal with the problem of high inflation. A time series covering the period 1975-2005 is used to analyse if the United Arab Emirates has experienced symptoms of the disease. Results show that the country has experienced some symptoms of the Dutch Disease during the period 1975-198 since changes in the price of oil caused tradables to shift to the non-tradable sector. Another sign of the disease is the high inflation rate Unite Arab Emirates experienced during the selected period, how-ever high inflation rate could be caused by other factors as well. Furthermore, the larger in-crease in the non-tradable sector compared to the tradable sector is also an indication of the disease in the country. According to these findings the authors can conclude that United Arab Emirates has experienced symptoms of the disease, however, it cannot be concluded that it has been a victim of the disease