Surrogate Modeling of Orbital Decay of Lunar Orbits

Presented at AIAA SciTech Forum 2023Operations in cislunar space are expected to greatly increase over the next decade, which will place a heightened demand on satellites operating in cislunar space. The orbit selection of the satellites is a key parameter of the mission. Orbital decay can present significant challenges for some lunar orbits due to gravitational perturbations. This study focuses on developing a fast method to assess the decay of lunar orbits. The method is based on modeling lunar orbits propagation in the presence of these perturbations to quantify orbital decay as a function of orbital parameters, then using the model to generate data and fit surrogate models. Results from this effort will enable decision makers to trade performance and station-keeping costs associated with relevant lunar orbits