An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Inundation on Bonaire

Bonaire is as a small and low-lying island state vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In the future decades, sea level rise and tropical cyclones are expected to increase coastal flood risk on the island. Yet, it is still unknown to what extent coastal flooding will increase and which areas on Bonaire are expected to flood. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation on Bonaire. First, a static bathtub model is used to estimate the future coastlines of the island under multiple sea level rise projections. Second, the SFINCS model is applied to incorporate the dynamic storm components of storm tide and waves in addition to sea level rise. The results of the inundation models indicate that coastal inundation becomes critical for large parts of Kralendijk in 2150 under scenarios SSP5-8.5 and SSP5-8.5 LC. Under the more optimistic scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 coastal inundation remains limited to the nature reserves of Klein Bonaire, Lac Bay and the saliñas. Therefore, the results of this study indicate the importance for Bonaire of globally limiting climate change to a lower-end future climate scenario