Local environmental context drives heterogeneity of early succession dynamics in alpine glacier forefields

Abstract. Glacier forefields have long provided ecologists with a model to study patterns of plant succession following glacier retreat. While plant survey-based approaches applied along chronosequences provide invaluable information on plant communities, the “space-for-time” approach assumes environmental uniformity and equal ecological potential across sites and does not account for spatial variability in initial site conditions. Remote sensing provides a promising avenue for assessing plant colonisation dynamics using a so-called “real-time” approach. Here, we combined 36 years of Landsat imagery with extensive field sampling along chronosequences of deglaciation for eight glacier forefields in the south-western European Alps to investigate the heterogeneity of early plant succession dynamics. Based on the two complementary and independent approaches, we found strong variability in the time lag between deglaciation and colonisation by plants and in subsequent growth rates, and in the composition of early plant succession. All three parameters were highly dependent on the local environmental context, i.e., local vegetation surrounding the forefields and energy availability linked to temperature and snowmelt gradients. Potential geomorphological disturbance did not emerge as a strong predictor of succession parameters, perhaps due to insufficient spatial resolution of predictor variables. Notably, elapsed time since deglaciation showed no consistent relationship to plant assemblages, i.e., we did not identify a consistent order of successional species across forefields as a function of time. Overall, both approaches converged towards the conclusion that early plant succession is not stochastic as previous authors have suggested but rather deterministic. We discuss the importance of scale in deciphering the unique complexity of plant succession in glacier forefields and provide recommendations for improving botanical field surveys and using Landsat time series in glacier forefields systems. Our work demonstrates complementarity between remote sensing and field-based approaches for both understanding and predicting future patterns of plant succession in glacier forefields