Macroseismic intensity hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid source model

Seismic hazard maps from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis or PSHA collect, at different sites, the values of the (site-specific) ground motion intensity measures of interest that, taken individually, have the same exceedance return period. For large-scale analyses, a widely used intensity measure is the macroseismic (MS) intensity, that provides an assessment of the earthquake effect based on the observed consequences in the hit area. Hazard maps can be developed in terms of MS intensity, and some examples exist in this respect. In the case of Italy, the last MS hazard map is based on the same seismic source model (known as MPS04) adopted to derive the design seismic actions of the current building code, a study dating more than ten years ago. It provides results in terms of countrywide Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) intensity level with 475 years return period. This short paper presents and discusses MCS probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid-seismicity source model, herein named MPS19, synthetizing the large effort of a wide scientific community. The results, which are obtained by means of classical PSHA, are given in the form of maps referring to the 475 years return period, and also others of earthquake engineering interest. Moreover, it is discussed that the return period does not univocally identifies the MS intensity because, although MS is, by definition, a discrete random variable, it is modelled, in a given earthquake, by means of a normal distribution, that is, treated as continuous. Thus, the maps of the minimum return period causing the occurrence or exceedance of different MCS intensities are also provided. Finally, the comparison between the 475 years return period hazard map presented and the one which is currently the point of reference in Italy, that is, computed using MPS04, is briefly discussed. All the computed maps are made available to the reader as supplemental material