Does soil thinning change soil erodibility? An exploration of long-term erosion feedback systems

Soil erosion rates on arable land frequently exceed the pace at which new soil is formed. This imbalance leads to soil thinning (i.e. truncation), whereby subsoil horizons and their underlying parent material become progressively closer to the land surface. As soil erosion is a selective process and subsurface horizons often have contrasting properties to the original topsoil, truncation-induced changes to soil properties might affect erosion rates and runoff formation through a soil erosion feedback system. However, the potential interactions between soil erosion and soil truncation are poorly understood due to a lack of empirical data and the neglection of long-term erodibility dynamics in erosion simulation models. Here, we present a novel model-based exploration of the soil erosion feedback system over a period of 500 years using measured soil properties from a diversified database of 265 agricultural soil profiles in the UK. For this, we adapted the Modified Morgan–Morgan–Finney model (MMMF) to perform a modelling experiment in which topography, climate, land cover, and crop management parameters were held constant throughout the simulation period. As selective soil erosion processes removed topsoil layers, the model gradually mixed subsurface soil horizons into a 0.2 m plough layer and updated soil properties using mass-balance mixing models. Further, we estimated the uncertainty in model simulations with a forward error assessment. We found that modelled erosion rates in 99 % of the soil profiles were sensitive to truncation-induced changes in soil properties. The soil losses in all except one of the truncation-sensitive profiles displayed a decelerating trend, which depicted an exponential decay in erosion rates over the simulation period. This was largely explained by decreasing silt contents in the soil surface due to selective removal of this more erodible particle size fraction and the presence of clayey or sandy substrata. Moreover, the soil profiles displayed an increased residual stone cover, which armoured the land surface and reduced soil detachment. Contrastingly, the soils with siltier subsurface horizons continuously replenished the plough layer with readily erodible material, which prevented the decline of soil loss rates over time. Although our results are limited by the edaphoclimatic conditions represented in our data, as by our modelling assumptions, we have demonstrated how modelled soil losses can be sensitive to erosion-induced changes in soil properties. These findings are likely to affect how we calculate soil lifespans and make long-term projections of land degradation