Evaluating mode-shift potentials to cycling based on individual capabilities

The present work shows the importance of individual physical capabilities for cycling in Switzerland, as well as introducing a routing-tool that integrates these capabilities in the estimation of cycling potentials. It does so for the first time for a national large-scale sample. A binary logit model of daily cycling was estimated, using data from the Swiss Health Survey. It is found that the frequency of exercise explains most of the variability of the choice to cycle or not. Since previous work in the literature has shown a clear link between exercise frequency and physical strength, one valid, although so far not directly observable hypothesis in micro data, is the simple one, that more physical power leads to faster speeds and more competitiveness of bicycling with cars. There are no direct observations in place to quantify mode-shift potentials that account for such factors. Here, a first attempt is made to impute physical cycling capabilities of Swiss Mobility Microcensus (i.e. national travel diary) respondents so that individual cycling potentials are added. An R-Package was written for the purpose of routing different bicycle and micromobility vehicle types which also accounts for electric assistance motors. Finally, the resulting mode-shares are determined for conventional bikes, pedelecs (e-bikes) and s-pedelecs (fast e- bikes) in Switzerland