MIMIC \u2014 Multidisciplinary Initiative on Methods to Integrate and Create Realistic Artificial Data

693JJ31950023Traditional safety modeling efforts primarily focus on accurately estimating crash frequencies or rates. The true relationships between crashes and potential causal factors are not always easily discernible from safety models. While a model consisting of multiple causal factors may produce accurate estimates of crash measures, it may not accurately explain all causal relationships. Knowing the true cause-and-effect relationships is important while choosing countermeasures to address safety problems. This Exploratory Advanced Research Program project developed a framework to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) datasets that mimic the known causal relationships between contributing factors and crashes. The proposed framework is generic and can be used to generate RAD for other facilities, such as work zones, bicycle/pedestrian facilities, innovative geometric designs, etc. The framework was applied to generate RAD for ramp terminals and speed change lane facilities at diamond interchanges. A web-based software was developed to provide easy access to the RAD dataset. The software provides 196 pregenerated datasets and the option to request custom datasets. Sample RAD datasets were used to test negative binomial and a suite of machine learning models. A model evaluation rubric was developed to evaluate and compare the performance of different models. Additionally, this project developed a second type of RAD dataset\u2014the virtual reality (VR) simulation testbeds for crashes and near-crashes occurring at interchanges. Driving simulator studies offer another source of RAD for evaluating new behavioral and roadway countermeasures. The testbeds were developed using safety critical events recorded in the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 Naturalistic Driving Study data. VR offers an engaging visualization platform to educate the public about interchange crashes and to evaluate different countermeasures. These interventions are well aligned with the USDOT\u2019s National Roadway Safety Strategy\u2019s Safe System Approach of considering an overlapping set of safety measures\u2014roadway countermeasures, behavioral interventions, enforcement, vehicle safety features, and emergency medical care\u2014to achieve zero roadway fatalities