Dairy consumption, plasma metabolites, and risk of type 2 diabetes.

Epidemiologic studies have reported a modest inverse association between dairy consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Whether plasma metabolite profiles associated with dairy consumption reflect this relationship remains unknown. We aimed to identify the plasma metabolites associated with total and specific dairy consumption, and to evaluate the association between the identified multi-metabolite profiles and T2D. The discovery population included 1833 participants from the Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea (PREDIMED) trial. The confirmatory cohorts included 1522 PREDIMED participants at year 1 of the trial and 4932 participants from the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS), Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII), and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study US-based cohorts. Dairy consumption was assessed using validated FFQs. Plasma metabolites (n = 385) were profiled using LC-MS. We identified the dairy-related metabolite profiles using elastic net regularized regressions with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. We evaluated the associations between the metabolite profiles and incident T2D in the discovery and the confirmatory cohorts. Total dairy intake was associated with 38 metabolites. C14:0 sphingomyelin (positive coefficient), C34:0 phosphatidylethanolamine (positive coefficient), and γ-butyrobetaine (negative coefficient) were associated in a directionally similar fashion with total and specific (milk, yogurt, cheese) dairy consumption. The Pearson correlation coefficients between self-reported total dairy intake and predicted total dairy intake based on the corresponding multi-metabolite profile were 0.37 (95% CI, 0.33-0.40) in the discovery cohort and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.13-0.19) in the US confirmatory cohort. After adjusting for T2D risk factors, a higher total dairy intake-related metabolite profile score was associated with a lower T2D risk [HR per 1 SD; discovery cohort: 0.76 (95% CI, 0.63-0.90); US confirmatory cohort: 0.88 (95% CI, 0.78-0.99)]. Total dairy intake was associated with 38 metabolites, including 3 consistently associated with dairy subtypes (C14:0 sphingomyelin, C34:0 phosphatidylethanolamine, γ-butyrobetaine). A score based on the 38 identified metabolites showed an inverse association with T2D risk in Spanish and US populations