Sudden cardiac death in adult congenital heart disease: can the unpredictable be foreseen?

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a major cause of mortality in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD). Several risk factors for SCD including conduction disturbances and ventricular dysfunction have been described previously. However, electrocardiogram (ECG) and echocardiographic parameters may change over time, and the predictive value of such temporal changes, rather than their point estimates, for SCD remains unknown. This was a retrospective case-control study in adults with CHD and proven or presumed SCD and matched controls. Data were obtained from three databases including 25 000 adults with CHD. Sequential measurements were performed on electrocardiograms and echocardiograms. Ventricular function was assessed by echocardiography and graded on a four-point ordinal scale: 1, normal [ejection fraction (EF) ≥50%]; 2, mildly impaired (EF 40-49%); 3, moderately impaired (EF 30-39%); and 4, severely impaired (EF < 30%). Overall, 131 SCDs (mean age 36 ± 14 years, 67% male) and 260 controls (mean age 37 ± 13 years, 63% male) were included. At baseline, median QRS duration was 108 ms (range 58-168 ms) in SCDs and 97 ms (range 50-168 ms) in controls and increased over time at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.5 vs. 0.5 ± 0.2 ms/year in SCDs and controls, respectively (P = 0.011). QT dispersion at baseline was 61 ms (range 31-168 ms) in SCDs and 50 ms (range 21-129 ms) in controls. QT dispersion increased at a rate of 1.1 ± 0.4 ms/year in SCD victims and decreased at a rate of 0.2 ± 0.2 ms/year in controls (P = 0.004). Increase of QRS duration ≥5 ms/year was associated with an increased risk of SCD [OR 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-3.3, P = 0.013]. Change from any baseline systemic ventricular function (normal, mild, or moderately impaired) to severe ventricular dysfunction over time was associated with the highest risk of SCD (OR 16.9, 95% CI 1.8-120.1, P = 0.008). In adults with CHD, QRS duration and ventricular dysfunction progress over time. Progression of QRS duration and the rate of impairment of ventricular function served to identify those at increased risk of SC