Spatial dimension of depopulation of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Since the start of census taking, the largest share of Croats in the total population of Bosnia and Herzegovina was recorded in 1948; this share has been reduced in every subsequent census due to intense emigration. Despite this, the total number of Croats continued to grow until 1971 because the high natural increase compensated for the demographic losses caused by emigration. However, after 1971 emigration became the determinant component of total change. In the war following the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, 8,000–9,000 Croats were killed, but there were considerably greater demographic losses caused by forced migration. Less than 30% of the 312,000 Croatian refugees returned to the country, and the same proportion of displaced people returned to their homes. As a result, Croats have completely disappeared from some parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina; roughly half of the remaining Croats are concentrated in western Herzegovina and Završje, and some are in Croatian enclaves in central Bosnia and Bosnian Posavina, while the remainder mostly lives as minorities in Bosniak majority areas. This exodus of population, of the optimal age for work and reproduction, accelerated demographic aging and reduced the reproductive potential of the population; following a short ‘baby boom’ in the first few years after the war, birth rates fell and mortality rates rose. The poor economic situation and political instability in the post-war era resulted in a fertility decline and an increasing trend of emigration, especially after Croatia’s accession to the European Union. The number of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina decreased by roughly 216,000 in the period from 1991 to 2013 (28.4%) and the negative trend continues into the present day. Croats with the worst demographic prospects are those living in areas where there are few of them, i.e. in the Republika Srpska and Bosniak cantons. Croats in central Bosnia have more favorable characteristics and potential for revitalization, while those in western Herzegovina and Završje (the largest continuous area with a majority Croatian population) are in the best position in terms of demographics. However, considering current negative trends, only the urgent implementation of the appropriate development and population policy can ensure that Croats are constituent people in Bosnia and Herzegovina and their long-term existence there