Social vulnerability in affluent contexts : an in-depth analysis of social vulnerability in Zürich

This report develops a comprehensive view of the specific social situation in Zürich, and of the potentially important dynamics that could have an influence on social vulnerability in the city. Methodology: To better understand social vulnerability in Zürich, CSS’s research team conducted, in a first step, several written and face-to-face interviews with experts working with very different social groups in the city of Zürich on a day-to-day basis. The insights gained during the expert interviews were used, in a second step, for a refined quantitative analysis of social vulnerability in Zürich, and the economic, demographic and cultural factors that influence it. The basis for both the interviews and the quantitative analysis was a set of scenarios of natural and human-induced hazards that could affect the city of Zürich: Flooding, chemical accident, pandemic, heatwave, earthquake, and criminality. Of these possibilities, three hazards were ultimately chosen for detailed spatial analysis: chemical accidents, flooding, and heatwave. Temporal variability in social vulnerability: Although Zürich is an affluent city, there are parts of the population that would lack the resources to cope with and recover from a major disaster. In many cases, vulnerability to hazards is associated with the same characteristics that determine vulnerability in everyday life, such as income, ethnicity, or age. However, the analysis found little evidence for a direct link between socio-economic factors and social vulnerability. Much more important was the issue of social isolation, which was found to be a main direct driver of vulnerability. Social isolation is particularly widespread among certain parts of the population (e.g. elderly people living alone, so-called sans papiers), whose situations may be exacerbated by additional socio-economic factors. In the context of disaster management, these factors are becoming increasingly relevant, as Zürich is being affected by several large-scale demographic trends that will influence vulnerability: migration and the changed cultural and ethnic composition of the city; uneven economic development across the city; and, the aging population. Spatial variability in social vulnerability: The results of the spatial analysis show that some of the indicators of the social vulnerability identified from the expert interviews are geographically concentrated in areas exposed to different hazards. As Zürich is located at the confluence of two large rivers, floods are one of the most significant hazard for the city. Interviews highlighted that economically weaker people could be particularly susceptible in the event of a major flood. The spatial analysis demonstrated that several neighbourhoods with many charitable housing facilities (a proxy for economic disadvantage) are located close to potential flood risk areas. While Zürich is not known as a centre of chemical industry, there are nevertheless several locations where a chemical accident could have serious consequences for nearby communities. Immigrants with limited knowledge of the official languages and poorly integrated minorities could be hard to alert in the event of a disaster. The spatial overlay of community spaces with chemical transport routes and sites can be used as the basis for developing a targeted risk communication strategy. Finally, partly driven by climate change, heat waves are becoming an increasing problem for Swiss cities. Most vulnerable are elderly people with few social contacts. The analysis shows higher densities of elderly people in the central part of the city (where the urban heat island effect is most pronounced) where exposure to heatwave risk is higher. Importantly, the project also demonstrated that some important aspects of social vulnerability cannot be represented spatially. For example, neither authorities nor non-governmental organizations have detailed knowledge about the whereabouts of sans papiers in the city. This illustrates the limitations of a cartographic approach to social vulnerability. Conclusions and Implications: A first key finding of this project has been the observation that, while internationally recognized metrics of vulnerability present a useful basis of study, locally specific characteristics are also important, and these can be more difficult to represent cartographically. Second, the project demonstrated that while disasters incite extreme impacts, vulnerabilty is not always caused by unusal factors. In fact, those people who are considered vulnerable in their everyday lives are also likely to be the most vulnerable in the context of a disaster. In this sense, the results highlight that a detailed analysis of the specific capabilities and requirements of various social groups is required to gain a social context-specific picture of vulnerability. Last, given society’s dynamism, disaster managers must also adopt adaptive and flexible approaches to understand how societal changes might influence social vulnerability. The results suggest that social vulnerability can most effectively be addressed by a network of various governmental and non-governmental actors. Above all, actors in the social welfare domain and disaster management must be better integrated