Hospitalisation dynamics.

Simulations of the hospitalisation evolution (solid lines) are compared to data from Fig 1 (diamonds). Simulations were performed with the new hospitalisation simulations from Fig 5F as input, and with hospital parameters extracted from the clinical data in Fig 6). The simulations after February 2021 show the hospitalisation progression in a scenario where the social restrictions from January 2021 would have persisted throughout 2021 without the impact of new viral strains and vaccinations. (A-D) Evolution of patients hospitalised (A), in ICU (B), deceased in ICU (C), and recovered patients that were released from hospitals (D). The simulated recovered are the sum of patients released from hospital compartments j = 3 and j = 5. (E) Age group dependent Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) computed by dividing the cumulated deceased from (C) with the cumulated new infections from Fig 5A. The dashed lines indicate the analytic values 0.0005%, 0.019%, 0.24%, 0.81%, and 2.62% computed with the probabilities for asymptomatic to become symptomatic, for symptomatic to become hospitalised, to be transferred to ICU, and to die in ICU. For the mean IFR we find 0.2%.