Napovedovanje bilateralnih tokov nezakonitih cigaret iz agregatnih uvoznih podatkov

International tobacco smuggling remains an important concern for governments, tobacco manufacturers and health experts alike. While often linked to other forms of illegal activities, it also directly impacts government tax and health policies. Knowledge of factors that contribute to illicit tobacco trade and the existence of smuggling routes is strongly hampered by the lack of reliable data on bilateral flows of illicit tobacco. Therefore, reconstructing the trafficking routes and estimating the size of cross-border illicit flows are crucial steps for gaining better understanding of these crimes and enforcing actions aimed at countering them. This study is the first to use grav-ity estimation techniques to decompose aggregate illicit cigarette inflows for which data are available into their bilateral components. Our approach is a simple and effective method that can serve as a complement to other methods of pinpointing international trafficking flows such as empty discarded pack data or network analysis to help in the fight against illicit tobacco flows. Policymakers, customs officials as well as law enforcement can employ the presented methods as an additional tool in the fight against illicit trade.Mednarodno tihotapljenje tobaka ostaja pomembna tema za vlade, proizvajalce tobaka in zdravstvene strokovnjake. Čeprav je pogosto povezano z drugimi oblikami nezakonitih dejavnosti, neposredno vpliva tudi na vladno davčno in zdravstveno politiko. Poznavanje dejavnikov, ki prispevajo k nezakoniti trgovini s tobakom in obstoju tihotapskih poti, je omejeno zaradi pomanjkanja zanesljivih podatkov o dvostranskih tokovih nezakonitega tobaka. Zato sta rekonstrukcija trgovskih poti in ocena obsega čezmejnih nezakonitih tokov bistvena koraka za boljše razumevanje teh kaznivih dejanj in izvajanje ukrepov, namenjenih boju proti njim. Ta študija je prva, ki je uporabila tehnike ocenjevanja gravitacijskega modela trgovine za dekompozicijo skupnih prilivov nezakonitih cigaret, za katere so na voljo podatki, na njihove bilateralne komponente. Naš pristop predstavlja razmeroma preprosta in učinkovita metoda, ki lahko služi kot dopolnilo drugim metodam natančnega določanja tokov mednarodne trgovine, kot so podatki o zavrženih embalažah ali analiza omrežij za pomoč v boju proti nezakonitim tokovom tobaka. Oblikovalci politik, cariniki in organi kazenskega pregona bi lahko predstavljene metode uporabili kot dodatno orodje v boju proti nedovoljeni trgovini