Quarterly Feed Demand for Corn

Corn feeding is normally heaviest in October-December, the first quarter of the marketing year. Multiple regression analysis is used to measure the impacts of the factors affecting corn feed use during the first quarter. The analysis shows best results using price of corn, price of soybean meal, livestock output, and livestock prices as feed use determinants. As expected, higher corn prices reduce demand while higher livestock output and prices increase demand. The analysis also suggests that there is some substitution between soybean meal and corn. A projection for the October-December 1975 quarter is provided and areas for further quarterly analysis are outlined. ======= The second quarter of the corn marketing year (January -March) is normally a period of heavy feeding. Several multiple regression equations are used in determining those variables influencing corn feed use. Production decisions earlier in the marketing year by livestock and poultry producers apparently have a stronger influence on feed demand in the second quarter than in the first. Lagged livestock-corn prices show this influence. Livestock output and livestock prices in the current quarter are also important determinants of feed use. A projection for the January-March 1976 quarter is provided and special mention is made of the slow expansion in hog product. ======= The third quarter of the corn marketing year (April-June) normally accounts for over one-fifth of the year's corn feed use. Multiple regression analysis is used in determining important variables influencing corn feed use. Lagged prices of livestock, corn, and soybean meal apparently are strong determinants of corn feed demand that reflect earlier decisions by livestock and poultry producers. Livestock output and corn prices in the current quarter also help to explain feed use. A projection for the April-June 1976 quarter indicates feed use will expand sharply from year-earlier levels. ======= Corn feeding is normally lightest in the fourth quarter of the marketing year (July-September). Multiple regression analysis is used in determining important variables affecting com feed use. In July-September, as in April-June, current feed demand is directly linked to lagged prices of livestock, corn, and soybean meal, which reflect earlier conditions in markets for livestock and poultry. Livestock output and corn prices in the current quarter also influence feed demand. The July-September quarter is somewhat unique in that wheat can directly compete with corn in many areas as a livestock feed due to wheat's usual seasonal low price at harvest when corn is typically at its seasonal high. Projected corn feeding in July-September 1976 is substantially above the 1975 level, which indicates a continuation of the expansion in feed use that began early in 1976