Applying the response surface methodology to predict the energy retrofit performance of the TABULA residential building stock

Recent advances in computing software have enabled the development of calibrated building energy simulations tools that allow retrofit-related analysis including optimization and energy-efficient building design. However, to create a national energy and climate plan, using these tools may imply a great deal of effort (time, cost, and human resources) to carry out simulations for the full set of different building types, construction, geometries, design parameters, and retrofit scenarios. Because of this, simplified approaches that can reliably estimate the impact of energy-efficiency retrofit alternatives based on averaged building stock characteristics could offer a significant advantage, especially in middle-income countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina. This study aims to explore the energy reduction potential of a representative building from the national residential building stock by utilizing the response surface methodology (RSM). In this study, RSM is combined with the energy simulation tools EnergyPlus and DesignBuilder to model the energy savings associated with energy-efficient retrofit measures for a residential building from the national TABULA registry in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This study introduces a novel energy consumption model that can be applied to optimize energy-efficient retrofit design solutions for reducing the energy consumption for heating and cooling in the residential building sector. Moreover, the model developed was validated by using the results of a national survey on energy consumption in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, the use of the model developed is versatile and suitable for rapid prediction of energy-efficient retrofit-related energy consumption and energy savings of the residential building stock