A GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF FORECASTED THREATS – FIRE AND LAND USE CHANGE – ON CONFICT BETWEEN THE MOUNTAIN LION (PUMA CONCOLOR) AND PEOPLE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA

Human-carnivore conflict (HCC) remains a significant threat to carnivore populations around the globe. HCC from depredation, car strikes, and illegal hunting in southern California with the mountain lion (Puma concolor) causes significant population decline and genetic bottlenecking. Additionally, fires in the region are becoming more frequent and intense, causing vegetation-type change altering habitat used by mountain lions and their prey. This study aimed to investigate the influence of fires and vegetation type change have on HCC with a southern population of mountain lions in San Diego county using mortality data as the metric for conflict. Geographic information systems (GIS) were used to map various environmental conditions including slope, elevation, vegetation health, land cover, fire severity, human population density, and distance to streams and secondary roads. These factors were sampled at each mountain lion mortality point and modeled to determine their influence. Fires and land cover were the least influential on human-related mountain lion deaths, while the distance to secondary roads, elevation, and vegetation health had the most significant influence. Understanding how environmental conditions influence HCC with mountain lions can better prepare wildlife managers to reduce conflict, educate community members, and ensure the survival of predators into the future