Individual-based Markov model of virus diffusion: Comparison with COVID-19 incubation period, serial interval and regional time series

A Markov chain individual-based model for virus diffusion is investigated. Both the virus growth within an individual and the complexity of the contagion within a population are taken into account. A careful work of parameter choice is performed. The model captures very well the statistical variability of quantities like the incubation period, the serial interval and the time series of infected people in Tuscany towns