Dynamic soaring in the winds of change: The effects of wind and oceanography on the population and spatial ecology of seabirds

Seabirds are marine top predators regarded as indicators of the environmental changes occurring in their supporting ecosystems. The analytical lens of this thesis focusses on seabird belonging to the order Procellariiformes, which have similar life-histories characterised by high life expectancy and delayed sexual maturity. Furthermore, despite acting as central place foragers during breeding, most procellariiform seabirds can perform foraging trips covering thousands of kilometres by extracting energy from the wind through a flight behaviour known as "dynamic soaring". The overarching aim of my thesis is to understand the pathways through which wind and oceanographic processes affect the demography, population dynamics, foraging ecology and spatial distribution of seabirds. Focussing on the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris) as a model organism, we developed integrated population models to investigate the effects of wind and oceanographic fluctuations on the population breeding and survival processes. By analysing a demographic database spanning nearly two decades, we found that the population breeding parameters were negatively impacted by higher sea surface temperatures and positively affected by stronger winds, presumably through bottom-up environmental processes modulating food availability and accessibility. Survival was relatively constant and was only influenced by deeper ecosystem changes acting at larger spatio-temporal scales. Furthermore, our results revealed the high sensitivity of the population to the survival rate of the poorly understood sub-adult life history stages, which comprised approximately half of the total population size. We then studied the occurrence of albatross chick mortality events not caused by predation. Our results showed that, while albatross chicks weighed less in years with warmer sea temperatures, chick malnutrition and environmentally-driven food regulation did not explain the observed patterns of mortality. Rather, nestlings mortality events unrelated to predation were clustered at small scales in time and space, suggesting that part of the pronounced inter-annual variability in albatross breeding success was modulated by the prevalence of an unidentified infectious disease. By developing state-space models, we quantified a previously hypothesised, but never empirically documented "habitat-mediated" pathway linking environmental conditions to the breeding processes of a social monogamous population. Specifically, we found a higher prevalence of divorce in challenging years characterised by warmer sea surface temperatures, documenting the direct disruptive effects of ocean warming on the social monogamous bonds of albatrosses. Our work then focussed on the hypermobile Desertas petrel (Pterodroma deserta) and Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) as model organisms to investigate role of winds in shaping the flight behaviour and the foraging ecology of dynamic soaring seabirds during the breeding season. Desertas petrels used favourable winds to maximise their ground speed and distance covered throughout their round-trip foraging movements, among the longest recorded in any animal. Bulwer's petrels, on the other hand, exploited the stable North Atlantic trade winds, exhibiting a striking selectivity for crosswinds and engaging in crosswind zig-zag flight throughout large sections of their tracks. Under stable winds, this strategy enabled them to maximise the distance travelled and the probability of detecting odour plumes along the round trip. Crucially, the movement patterns of these two species suggest that seabirds have a priori knowledge of the regional winds and can plan their round-trip with an expectation of predicted wind conditions and costs of flight to return back to their colony. Collectively, the findings of my thesis highlight the sensitivity of seabirds to changes in oceanographic conditions and their reliance on winds to sustain their extreme life-history. Given the accelerating pace of global change and its dramatic effects on marine ecosystems, monitoring the diagnostic responses of these "sentinels" of the global ocean and, crucially, predicting their future performance is a conservation goal of upmost importance.Falkland Islands Government – Environmental Studies Budge