An average investor’s ideal asset allocation: A sophisticated versus a naive strategy

An average investor trying to allocate his wealth among multiple assets ideally has nearly infinite possibilities to do so. However, asset allocation strategies try to facilitate this process. Nevertheless, no consensus exists on which strategy is ideal and yields the best performance. Therefore, this paper aims to determine an ideal asset allocation strategy for an average investor by comparing two asset allocation strategies. The focus is on comparing the practical application of Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), a sophisticated asset allocation strategy, with an equally weighted asset allocation, namely the 1/N strategy. The past performance of these two strategies is compared with the help of a calculation example based on historical data. The quantitative analysis covers three time periods of different lengths between 1991 and 2022. Also, the strategies are applied to portfolios with different amounts of assets during these periods. Although the existing literature is very controversial concerning the performance of the two strategies, this research shows a clear result. Compared to the 1/N strategy, this study’s findings show an outperformance of the MPT strategy during every period and each portfolio combination. However, the difference in performance regarding return and risk is minimal in most scenarios and would not significantly affect an average investor who invests over a long-term horizon