Armed conflict and cross-border asymmetries in urban development: A contextualized spatial analysis of Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gisenyi, Rwanda

Armed conflicts often cause significant structural disturbance and modification to urban areas. These manifest as changes to the built environment either through destruction and diminution of built area or through an increase in extent and the number of buildings. The magnitude of conflict-induced displacement and migration are dependent upon a range of socio-political factors, resulting in variabilities in conflict-induced urban growth. Border cities provide a valuable setting to compare these variations, as they share geographical and cultural similarities, enabling comparative analysis of the conditions leading to divergent trajectories. This study examines the effects of armed inter- and intra-state conflict on urban spatial development both within and across national borders, focusing on the proximal cities of Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Gisenyi, Rwanda, between 1989 and 2014 (due to the availability of cloud-free satellite imagery). We conducted a visual analysis of high- to very high-resolution satellite imagery to map spatial development (both urban extent and individual buildings) for both cities. Based on this analysis, we then conducted site visits and interviews, through which underlying drivers of urban development pathways were identified and initial steps were made to disentangle conflict- and non-conflict drivers, as not all urban changes and differences are related to the presence or absence of armed conflict. These are situated in different phases of armed conflict in the region, the governance of their repercussions (or lack thereof), and the complex interdependencies between the two cities. Our analysis revealed remarkable differences in spatial development and urban morphology. While Goma's urban area expands and densifies, Gisenyi's spatial extent remains relatively stable. Stakeholders on the ground identified armed conflict, linked population flows including internal and cross-border forced displacements, as well as differences in handling conflict-repercussions between the states as underlying drivers of the observed spatial changes. This study thus provides detailed evidence on the processes and drivers implicit in urban development and change in cross-border cities, their similarities, differences, and interdependencies, with a particular focus on armed conflicts’ domestic and cross-border effects