Dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin in 2005–2015, based on DSPERM framework model and simulated annealing-projection pursuit model

With the intensified impact of human activities, most lakes have been severely disturbed and the lake ecosystem has been seriously damaged, which exerted a great impact on the living environment of human beings in the lake basins. The health of the lake ecosystem has gradually become one of the hot issues in recent years. In this study, the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) was used to reveal the chain relationship between human activities and water environment in the economic development of the Dianchi Lake Basin in Kunming City of China during 2005–2015. Specifically, we chose 25 evaluation indicators related to the water environment and social-economic activities, classified them into six subsystems, i.e., the driving force subsystem (D), the water resources situation and consumption subsystem (S), the water resources pressure subsystem (P), the water environmental situation subsystem (E), the response subsystem (R), and the management subsystem (M), and built a comprehensive assessment system-DSPERM framework model. Simulated annealing-projection pursuit model which reflects the structure or feature of high-dimensional data was adopted to calculate the WRCC of the Dianchi Lake Basin during 2005–2015 by weighting each evaluation indicator and each subsystem of the DSPERM framework model. The results show that the WRCC of the Dianchi Lake Basin was in level III (medium carrying capacity) from 2005 to 2012. Since 2013, the WRCC has been at level II (strong carrying capacity), and from 2005 to 2015, it showed a gradual upward trend. The evaluation indicators of each subsystem varied greatly and exhibited different development trends. The indicators of the water resources pressure subsystem had the greatest impact on the WRCC, followed by the indicators of the water environmental situation subsystem and the water resources situation and consumption subsystem. We recommend that the DSPERM framework model and the simulated annealing-projection pursuit model constructed in this work can be used to analyze the dynamic changes of the WRCC over the years. They have the advantages of practicability and feasibility, and can provide the basis for the scientific decision-making and comprehensive management of regional water environment planning