Climate Change Effect on Water Use Efficiency under Selected Soil and Water Conservation Practices in the Ruzizi Catchment, Eastern D.R. Congo

Concerns have been raised on the effectiveness and sustainability of Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) practices as adaptation options to climate change and high intra– and inter–annual rainfall variabilities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This study was conducted in the Ruzizi Plain, a dryland area, to assess the performance of maize (Zea mays L.) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two SWC practices (tied ridges and conventional tillage). The AgMIP’s Regional Integrated Assessment (RIA) approach was used to simulate Water Use Efficiency (WUE) under the Cropping System Model–Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CSM–CERES–Maize) of the Decision Support System for Agro–technology Transfer (DSSAT). The model was calibrated using experimental data from nine cropping seasons (2011–2018) and 100 farms. The model sensitivity was assessed as a function of temperature, water, and SWC practices for the same environments. Initial conditions of crop management practices were used as input data for CSM–CERES–Maize. Current climate data were extracted from AgMERRA datasets corrected with local data for the period of 1980 to 2021. Future climate projections (2022–2099) were obtained after down−scaling the data from the 29 General Circulation Models (GCMS) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and subsetted to five GCMs based on climate regimes. GCMS results were a strong indicator that climate change in this DRC dryland will result in an increase in average annual temperatures for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5, with the highest increase (3.05 °C) under hot/dry conditions for RCP8.5 and the lowest (1.04 °C) under cool/dry conditions for RCP 4.5. All the models selected for five climate regimes for 2022–2099 showed no change in the rainfall trends for RCP 4.5 (p > 0.05). The models projected yield declines of 5–25%, with less yield losses under tied ridges as an adaptation practice. The use of efficient SWC practices could therefore be a promising strategy in reducing potential losses from climate change in drylands of eastern DRC