Research on Spatial and Temporal Evolution Trends and Driving Factors of Green Residences in China Based on Weighted Standard Deviational Ellipse and Panel Tobit Model

The development of green residences is crucial to reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions of the construction industry. However, the study on the spatial distribution characteristics of green residences and its influencing factors has not attracted enough attention in the academic circles. Base on the panel database on the number of each star green residences and their driving factors at the municipal level from 2008 to 2016, this paper employed the Weighted Standard Deviational Ellipse model to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution features of green residences in China, creatively introduced an improved Gini coefficient (G′-score) to measure the green residences development in each city, and utilized the panel Tobit model and average marginal effect to identify the driving mechanisms and key factors of green residences from economy, society, the real estate market, policy and climate. The main conclusions show that: (1) China has formed a relatively stable and clear temporal and spatial evolution path since 2011, such as the center of gravity and coverage having moved to the west, and the direction of development trend having weakened; (2) China’s green residence is mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions, and the main direction layout is northeast–southwest; (3) the development of green residences is the result of the interaction of various factors, and the driving force of each factor varies greatly under the single action and the interaction; (4) the driving effects of the same factor on green residences with different star ratings are inconsistent in sign, magnitude, and significance, the same as for each factor under the same star rating