Spatial Patterns Exploration and Impacts Modelling of Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Three Stages of Metropolitan Areas in the YREB, China

Metropolitan areas in China are not only the core spatial carriers of urbanization development but also the main generators of land use carbon emission (LUCE). However, existing research lacks comparative studies on the differential patterns and impact factors of LUCE in different stages of metropolitan areas. Therefore, this paper deeply analyzes the spatial characteristics of LUCE and the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the economy contributive coefficient (ECC) and ecological support coefficient (ESC) in three different stages of metropolitan areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), China. Moreover, quantitative modelling of the impact factors of LUCE in these different stages of metropolitan areas is furtherly revealed. Results show that: (1) The more mature stage of the metropolitan area, the higher the amount of LUCE, and the more districts or counties with high carbon emissions levels are clustered. (2) At the metropolitan area scale, the more mature the metropolitan area is and the lower the CCD between ECC and ESC is, while at the finer scale, more developed counties have lower CCD. (3) Resident population, per capita GDP, and urbanization rate have good explanatory effects on carbon emissions in these three metropolitan areas; however, except for the urbanization rate, which has a negative effect on LUCE in Nanchang metropolitan area (NMA), the other two factors have positive effects on LUCE in these three metropolitan areas. This study has important implications for different stages of metropolitan areas to formulate targeted LUCE reduction policies