Analyzing the Driving Mechanism of Rural Transition from the Perspective of Rural–Urban Continuum: A Case Study of Suzhou, China

Rural transition has become a core topic in the study of the urban–rural relationship in China. Analyzing the transition process and sorting out the key driving factors in different periods is essential for providing critical references for the urban–rural integration and rural revitalization policy. This paper takes Suzhou, a rapidly urbanizing prefecture-level city that has experienced three obvious stages of rural transition since China’s reform and opening-up, as the case area to explore the driving mechanism from the perspective of rural–urban continuum. We first construct the index system for measuring rural transition from two dimensions of rurality and urbanity. Then, we identify the core influencing factors of different phases from 1990 to 2015, employing spatial regression models and then extract the main driving mechanism. The results revealed the following key findings. (1) Rural transition in Suzhou has both proximity effects and structural effects; the development patterns of rural areas are becoming more heterogeneous. (2) From the rurality dimension, the regression coefficient of index representing grain production changes from positive to negative during the research periods, reflecting the “non-grain” trend of agricultural production in rural areas. (3) From the urbanity dimension, the regression coefficient of index promoting by foreign direct investment increases from 0.372 in 1990 to 0.829 in 2015, indicating that the external driving force of rural transition has become stronger. (4) In 2015, the regression coefficient of index representing tertiary industry reaches 0.468, meaning the modern service industry has played an increasingly important role in rural development. Our study provides valuable insights into the dynamic change of driving mechanism of rural transition at the town level, argues that the general trend of viewing transition process as rurality weakens and urbanity enhances could be replaced by multifunctional pathways. This study supplements existing research to understand new phenomena during the transition process, the latter offer implications for policy-making, such as grain security, spatial spillovers, and rural tourism