Spatiotemporal Variation in Vegetation Growth Status and Its Response to Climate in the Three-River Headwaters Region, China

The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR), located in the hinterland of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), is an important water-conservation and ecological-function reserve in China. Studies of the growth of vegetation in the TRHR and its response to climate under the background of global warming are of great relevance for ecological protection of the QTP. In this study, based on MOD13Q1 Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data and ERA5-Land climate data, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method, random forest algorithm, and Hurst exponent were used to detect the spatiotemporal dynamics and response to climate change in TRHR vegetation during 2000–2021. The results indicated the following. (1) Comparatively, the condition of vegetation growth was better in 2021, 2010, and 2018 and poorer in 2015, 2003, and 2008. The EVI gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest, and the area of improved vegetation growth was larger than the area of degraded vegetation growth. (2) The area of zones with either monotonous greening or monotonous browning of vegetation was 30.30% and 6.30%, respectively, and the trend of reversed vegetation change occurred in 63.40% of the areas. The area of future degradation of vegetation in the TRHR was larger than the area of future improvement, and the risk of vegetation degradation was higher. (3) Precipitation and soil temperature are the main and secondary driving factors of vegetation change in the TRHR, respectively. Warming and humidification of the QTP climate play major roles in the improvement of vegetation growth in the TRHR