Possible determinants of budget realization of local units in the Republic of Croatia

U posljednje vrijeme sve je veći interes za proučavanjem odrednica ostvarenja proračuna kako u drugim zemljama i regijama, tako i u RH. Cilj ovog diplomskog rada bio je odrediti koje bi mogle biti odrednice ostvarenja proračuna te kakav je njihov utjecaj. Koristeći se dokazima iz raznih radova na podacima drugih zemalja kao što su Makedonija i Poljska, formirane su hipoteze te testirane na podacima za RH. Prva hipoteza želi utvrditi imaju li lokalne jedinice većih proračunskih prihoda veće kapitalne izdatke, veće rashode za plaće te veću proračunsku transparentnost. Cilj druge hipoteze jest utvrditi ima li veličina populacije pozitivan učinak na ukupne porezne prihode lokalne jedinice. U trećoj se hipotezi želi ispitati postoji li statistički značajna pozitivna veza između dohotka te kapitalne pomoći proračunu i proračunskih rashoda lokalne jedinice, te postoji li statistički značajna negativna veza između gustoće stanovništva i proračunskih rashoda lokalne jedinice. Četvrta hipoteza govori da lokalne jedinice s većom proračunskom transparentnosti imaju veće proračunske rashode. U petoj se hipotezi želi utvrditi znači li li veći proračunski prihod lokalne jedinice manju vjerojatnost ostvarenja proračunskog deficita. Također, ispituje vrijedi li da što je veći broj poduzeća i radne snage, to se šanse za ostvarenje proračunskog deficita povećavaju. Prije testiranja hipoteza nacrtani su grafovi zavisnih i nezavisnih varijabli te su uočene relacije pomoću kojih se lako pretpostave ishodi formalnog testiranja. Zaključeno je da što su veći rashodi za plaće po stanovniku, to su veći proračunski prihodi po stanovniku u županijama, gradovima te općinama. Također, u svim lokalnim jedinicama i županijama vrijedi i da što je veći broj stanovnika, to su veći ukupni porezni prihodi. Što su veće kapitalne pomoći proračunu po stanovniku, to su veći proračunski rashodi po stanovniku takoder u svim županijama, gradovima i općinama. Na kraju zaklju čeno je da u svim lokalnim jedinicama te županijama vrijedi da veća gustoća stanovni šta znači manje proračunske rashode po stanovniku. Zadnje poglavlje diplomskog rada posvećeno je testiranju hipoteza koje su dale iduće rezultate: Pokazano je da županije s većim proračunskim prihodima imaju veće kapitalne izdatke dok gradovi i općine koje imaju ne samo veće kapitalne izdatke već i veće rashode za plaće imaju veće proračunske prihode. Što se tiče poreznih prihoda, pokazano je da sve lokalne jedinice i županije s većim brojem stanovnika imaju veće ukupne porezne prihode. Takoder, pokazano je da županije s većim kapitalnim pomoćima proračunu imaju veće proračunske rashode. Gradovi s većim kapitalnikm pomoćima proračunu i većim dohotkom imaju veće proračunske rashode. Za općine je pokazana ista tvrdnja ali vrijedi još i da općine s većom gustoćom stanovništva imaju manje proračunske rashode. Na kraju se pokazalo da kod gradova i općina kako rastu proračunski rashodi, tako i raste vjerojatnost ostvarenja proračunskog deficita. Zaključci ovog diplomskog rada mogu se doraditi, hipoteze bi se mogle testirati i na svim lokalnim jedinicama zajedno te bi se u hipoteze mogle dodavati razne nove nezavisne varijable. Iznesena testiranja i rezultati mogu pomoći boljim predviđanjima proračuna u narednoj godini pa samim time i njegovom boljem iskorištenju.Recently, there has been a growing interest in studying the determinants of budget realization both in other countries and regions, as well as in the Republic of Croatia. The aim of this thesis was to determine what could be the determinants of budget realization and what their influence is. Using evidence from various works on data from other countries such as Macedonia and Poland, hypotheses were formed and tested on data for the Republic of Croatia. The first hypothesis seeks to determine whether local units with higher budget revenues have higher capital expenditures, higher wage expenditures, and higher budget transparency. The goal of the second hypothesis is to determine whether the size of the population has a positive effect on the total tax revenues of the local unit. The third hypothesis aims to examine whether there is a statistically significant positive relationship between income and capital aid to the budget and budget expenditures of the local unit, and whether there is a statistically significant negative relationship between population density and budget expenditures of the local unit. The fourth hypothesis states that local units with greater budget transparency have higher budget expenditures. The fifth hypothesis aims to determine whether a higher budget income of a local unit means a lower probability of a budget deficit. It also examines whether it is true that the greater the number of companies and the workforce, the greater the chances of achieving a budget deficit. Before testing the hypotheses, graphs of dependent and independent variables were drawn, and relations were observed, with the help of which the results of formal testing can be easily assumed. It was concluded that the higher the expenditures for salaries per inhabitant, the higher the budget revenues per inhabitant in counties, cities and municipalities. Also, in all local units and counties, the larger the number of inhabitants, the higher the total tax revenues. The higher the capital aid to the budget per inhabitant, the higher the budget expenditure per inhabitant also in all counties, cities and municipalities. In the end, it was concluded that in all local units and counties, higher population density means lower budget expenditures per inhabitant. The last chapter of the thesis is dedicated to testing the hypotheses that gave the following results: It was shown that counties with higher budget revenues have higher capital expenditures, while cities and municipalities that have not only higher capital expenditures but also higher expenditures for salaries have higher budget revenues. As for tax revenues, it was shown that all local units and counties with a larger number of inhabitants have higher total tax revenues. Also, it was shown that counties with larger capital grants to the budget have larger budget expenditures. Cities with higher capital grants to the budget and higher income have higher budget expenditures. The same statement was shown for municipalities, but it is also true that municipalities with a higher population density have lower budget expenditures. In the end, it turned out that as budget expenditures grow in cities and municipalities, so does the probability of a budget deficit. The conclusions of this thesis can be refined, the hypotheses could be tested on all local units together, and various new independent variables could be added to the hypotheses. The presented tests and results can help to make better predictions of the budget in the coming year and, therefore, to make better use of it