The Impact of Academic Aspirations and Career Uncertainty on Students’ College Outcomes

Between the fall of 2009 and 2019, total postsecondary institution enrollment in the United States decreased by 5%, and for those students who do enroll in college, many who lack clear career objectives drop out, making the U.S. the nation with the highest college dropout rate in the industrialized world. Students’ academic aspirations and career certainty have been shown to impact college outcomes. However, the impact of career uncertainty and academic aspirations on students’ college outcomes has not been studied nationally. Using binomial regression analyses and a nationally representative sample (N = 23,503) of high school students, we investigated the impact of high school students’ career uncertainty and academic aspirations on their college outcomes. Findings indicate that academic aspirations were a significant predictor of students’ college application, enrollment, attendance, and major decision status. Career uncertainty was a significant predictor of students’ college enrollment status. We discuss implications for practice and future research