Smallholders’ Livelihood Resilience in the Dryland Area of the Yellow River Basin in China from the Perspective of the Family Life Cycle: Based on GeoDetector and LMG Metric Model

Farm households’ sustainable livelihoods in the dryland area of the Yellow River basin is an important guarantee of ecological protection and high-quality development for the Yellow River basin. However, farm households in this region have been facing frequent droughts, water resource shortages, severe soil erosion and other problems; their livelihood security has been seriously threatened. This study used a livelihood resilience framework to evaluate farm households’ livelihood resilience in dryland areas through the field survey data and identified the influencing factors of livelihood resilience using the GeoDetector and the Lindeman, Merenda and Gold method (LMG) from the family life cycle perspective. The results revealed the following points: (1) there were significant differences in livelihood resilience, adaptive capacity and anticipatory capacity at each stage of the family life cycle at a 5% significant level. (2) The top two variables of livelihood resilience were preparedness and planning, and substitutable assets, followed by household characteristics. With the evolution of the family life cycle, the impacts of family assets and basic service access on livelihood resilience showed a “U” trend. On the contrary, savings and safety nets showed an inverted “U” shape. (3) Both the GeoDetector and LMG metric models could identify the key influencing factors, but the variable importance rankings of the two models were different to some degree. Finally, based on the results of the analysis, this study proposed targeted policy recommendations for building livelihood resilience of farm households