Impacts of Upgrading of Consumption Structure and Human Capital Level on Carbon Emissions—Empirical Evidence Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data

Carbon emission reduction (CER) is increasingly becoming a global issue. This study explored the impact mechanism of upgrading of consumption structure (UCS) and human capital level (HC) on carbon emissions, and an empirical test was carried out using the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019 in China. The results show the following: (1) China’s UCS could significantly curb carbon emissions. (2) At present, China’s HC is positively correlated with carbon emissions. The higher the level of human capital, the less conducive to CER. Additionally, the moderating effect of HC could inhibit the CER induced by UCS. (3) Regional heterogeneity analysis showed that the UCS in the central and western regions of China was conducive to CER, while the estimated coefficient of UCS on CER in the eastern region was not significant. (4) The UCS could reduce carbon emissions by stimulating the mediating effect of industrial upgrading. Based on empirical study results, this study proposes policy suggestions that can help reduce China’s carbon emissions