Effect of Selected Meteorological Factors on the Growth Rate and Seed Yield of Winter Wheat—A Case Study

Recent years have seen a significant increase in weather anomalies in Central Europe (51°22′ N, 22°64′ E), which makes it more difficult to predict yields of winter wheat and to estimate prices on world exchanges. Eight-year (2007–2015) field observations of winter wheat cv. Turnia were carried out in order to determine the relationship between selected meteorological indicators (e.g., the values of average daily air temperature, daily sums of precipitation, and the number of days with precipitation) and the biometric traits and seed yield of winter wheat. In addition, an attempt was made to identify the meteorological parameters that determine an increase in stem elongation during the growing season. The relationship between yield parameters and biometric parameters was evaluated using Spearman’s non-parametric correlation coefficients. The regression models for analysis of the dependence of yield parameters and biometric parameters on meteorological elements (temperature, precipitation totals, and days with precipitation) in each development period was used. The study showed that from the beginning of vegetative growth to the flowering stage, growth and development were most advanced in plants for which the average temperature was about 8–9 °C, and the number of days with precipitation was about 41. During generative growth, spike length is 80% determined by the precipitation total. Grain weight is 68% negatively determined by the temperature during dormancy (the higher the temperature during dormancy, the lower the weight of the kernel). A positive relationship was shown between yield and the precipitation total during the period from sowing to the onset of dormancy (r = 0.37). Winter wheat yield was 69% dependent on the density at harvest (the greater the density, the higher the final yield). On the basis of the 8-year results of the study, we conclude that the weather is highly variable from year to year, and therefore breeders should direct their research towards creating variants with much greater plasticity and high tolerance for unfavourable weather patterns