Temporal Variation of Temperature in Guwahati, Assam: An Application of Seasonal ARIMA Model

Analysis of time series has become a major tool in various applications in environmental areas to understand phenomena, like rainfall, temperature, humidity, draught and so forth. Here, SARIMA model has been used to carry out short-term predictions of monthly maximum and minimum temperature in Guwahati city of Assam. The present study aimed at analysing the temporal variation in temperature in Guwahati during the period 1981-2018. The study of linear trend indicated increasing trends in mean and maximum temperatures and decreasing trends in minimum temperatures, Mann-Kendall test has been used to know the variability in trends in annual and seasonal temperature. The analysis reveals an increasing pattern in temperature both seasonally and annually during the period 1981-2018. The analysis of moving average indicated two periods when annual mean temperature increased significantly. These periods are closely associated with the post-independence period of industrialization (1955-1965) and recent phase of urbanization (after 2000). The analysis also indicates that the rate of change in temperatures brought by post-independence period of industrial activities is higher than that of recent year’s urbanization. Again, the monthly and seasonal analysis of temperature revealed a sharp decline in minimum temperature during winter season and especially in the coldest month (January) than any other seasons