The Impact of Taiwan’s Tourism Policies over the Past Years on the Stock Prices of Related Industries

[[abstract]]觀光旅遊是目前全球最具發展潛力的產業，全球觀光產業所占產值已成為許多國家外匯收入的重要來源，觀光產業創造了許多就業與發展機會(UNWTO，2017)，特別是島嶼地區更是以發展觀光旅遊為主要的經濟產業。本論文分析2008年至2019年間，以臺灣上市公司與觀光相關產業之食品工業、貿易百貨、海空運、觀光事業、生技醫療、通信網路、航運業類股為研究對象，利用事件研究系統計算出樣本公司的「平均異常報酬率」(AR)或「累積平均異常報酬率」(CAR)，並進行本研究假說之檢定：臺灣歷年觀光政策對相關產業股價在事件日前後是否出現顯著而且正向的「平均異常報酬率」(AR)或「累積平均異常報酬率」(CAR)。 從實證結果發現，不論是全體樣本分析，或是各相關產業分別探討，在平均異常報酬率(AR)，負向影響多於正向影響；而在累積平均異常報酬率(CAR)上顯示出我國的觀光政策對相關產業股價皆呈顯著且負向影響。由於臺灣與中國錯綜複雜的關係，政治關係在兩岸旅遊扮演著重要的影響因素，因此易造成與預期不符的結果。 在面對國際觀光旅遊的蓬勃發展，我國應開發不同的國際市場，促進臺灣入境觀光市場的多元發展。[[abstract]]Sightseeing tourism is the industry with the most development potential in the world.The output value of the global tourism industry has become an important source of foreign exchange income in many countries. This paper analyzes the period from 2008 to 2019, taking stocks listed in Taiwan's food industry, trading department stores, sea and air transportation, tourism, biotechnology, medical communication, communication network, shipping industry as the research object. From the empirical results, it is found that whether it is the analysis of the entire sample or the separate discussion of each related industry,in the average abnormal return rate (AR), the negative impact is more than the positive impact; The cumulative average abnormal return rate (CAR) shows that China's tourism policies have a significant and negative impact on the stock prices of related industries. Facing the vigorous development of international sightseeing tourism, we should develop different international markets and promote the diversified development of Taiwan's inbound tourism market