Do simple ventilation and gas exchange measurements predict early successful weaning from respiratory support in unselected general intensive care patients?

BACKGROUND: The value of respiratory variables as weaning predictors in the intensive care unit (ICU) is controversial. We evaluated the ability of tidal volume (Vt(exp)), respiratory rate (f), minute volume (MV(exp)), rapid shallow breathing index (f/Vt), inspired-expired oxygen concentration difference [(I-E)O(2)], and end-tidal carbon dioxide concentration (Pe'(co(2))) at the end of a weaning trial to predict early weaning outcomes. METHODS: Seventy-three patients who required >24 h of mechanical ventilation were studied. A controlled pressure support weaning trial was undertaken until 5 cm H(2)O continuous positive airway pressure or predefined criteria were reached. The ability of data from the last 5 min of the trial to predict whether a predefined endpoint indicating discontinuation of ventilator support within the next 24 h was evaluated. RESULTS: Pre-test probability for achieving the outcome was 44% in the cohort (n=32). Non-achievers were older, had higher APACHE II and organ failure scores before the trial, and higher baseline arterial H(+) concentrations. The Vt, MV, f, and f/Vt had no predictive power using a range of cut-off values or from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The [I-E]O(2) and Pe'(co(2)) had weak discriminatory power [area under the ROC curve: [I-E]O(2) 0.64 (P=0.03); Pe'(co(2)) 0.63 (P=0.05)]. Using best cut-off values for [I-E]O(2) of 5.6% and Pe'(co(2)) of 5.1 kPa, positive and negative likelihood ratios were 2 and 0.5, respectively, which only changed the pre- to post-test probability by about 20%. CONCLUSIONS: In unselected ICU patients, respiratory variables predict early weaning from mechanical ventilation poorly