Regional differences and threshold characters of the impact of energy use efficiency on energy scarcity in China

The improvement of the technical efficiency of energy use has been widely seen as an important way to alleviate energy scarcity. However, the energy rebound effect demonstrates the vulnerability and unsustainability of alleviating energy scarcity relying on technology. Under the background of the consistent development of energy factor market, it is of great importance to explore the paths and differences of energy source allocation constrained by technology and cost to promote the sustainable use of energy. This study analyzed the regional differences and threshold characteristics in the impact of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use on energy scarcity using the instrumental variable-two-stage least square method, based on the panel data of Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2017. The results showed that: ① Technology and price were the critical forces of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use. They changed the degree of use of surplus production factors by affecting the complementary and replacement demand relationship between energy and non-energy factors. Meanwhile, the impact of energy use efficiency on energy scarcity showed regional and time features due to the different technology capabilities and different levels of market development in different regions and different time. ② The alleviation of energy scarcity at the national level relied on the improvement of energy cost efficiency. At the regional level, the alleviation of energy scarcity in central China came from the improvement of the technical efficiency of energy use. However, the alleviation of energy scarcity in the eastern and western regions was due to the improvement of energy cost efficiency. ③ Constrained by the economic development, openness, science and technology input and the industrial development structure, the impact of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use on energy scarcity demonstrated a nonlinear feature. And structural mutation occurred after passing a specific ‘inflection point’, which showed a significant threshold feature. Therefore, energy price should play an important role in energy use and it is necessary to pay attention to the regional differences and time characteristics of energy economic development to promote the sustainable development of energy resources