The Effects of State Tax Reform on Tax Revenue Volatility

Recent literature has established that state tax revenues have grown significantly more volatile relative to previous decades. Consequently, this is a growing concern for state policymakers who increasingly need stable revenue sources to meet spending obligations. In this paper, the consequences of comprehensive state tax reforms on subsequent tax revenue volatility are studied using the reforms of Utah (2007) and North Carolina (2013) as case studies. Using a synthetic control methodology, graphical evidence suggests that North Carolina’s tax reform resulted in lower subsequent revenue volatility, but that Utah’s reform likely did not have such an effect on revenue volatility