Media and power: controlling religion by manipulating public opinion. The case of Islam in Kazakhstan

Controlling public opinion is a crucial talent of a dictator. Without the ability to softly change the moods of people in one direction or another, it is very difficult to pursue the intended policies. This is even more so, if such a policy would concern a potentially sensitive issue, such as religion. In this study, I explore the mechanisms of state propaganda in online news that allow Kazakhstani authorities to control public opinion of Salafism, an Islamic religious movement. I demonstrate that by properly framing political issues, the elites are able to manipulate the public opinion on this issue. After exploring the mechanisms of news framing, I test their effectiveness in a simple experiment that will reflect those mechanisms. This research assumes that the legacy of the Soviet Union still strongly affects the leadership in post-Soviet states and informs the elites' negative perception of religion as well as the necessity to offer a counter-narrative. For this reason, the authorities are worried about the moderate religious revival in Kazakhstan, which opened the space for proliferation of both traditional and new religious movements. In addition, the 2016 terrorist attacks in Aktobe and in Almaty reinforced the elites’ mistrust towards religion. The Kazakhstani president openly blamed followers of Salafism. This resulted in the increase of governmental control over religion that is manifested in the secularization of the state. In addition, the danger of the proliferation of Salafist ideas is being countered by the moderate and traditional to Kazakhstan version of Islam, which is the Hanafi School of Islamic jurisprudence officially endorsed by the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kazakhstan that cooperates with the authorities. Followers of Salafism reject the authority of the Spiritual Administration, so the government does not have the control over them. However, the authorities think that control in the question of religion is very important. First, I conducted a content analysis of the three most popular online news agencies in the period of 2015-2018 and identify how Salafism, Hanafism, and secularism are framed in the mass media. The analysis identified three types of negative messages on Salafism: (1) followers of Salafism are morally bad, (2) Salafism is a threat to national security, (3) Salafism is foreign to Kazakhs. In addition, there is a message on Hanafi Islam: (4) Hanafism is native to Kazakhs. Besides, I found one type of message on secularism, however, this one was very persistent: (5) Kazakhstan is a secular state. This allowed me to support my proposition regarding secularization. The experiment that I ran afterwards allowed me to measure the success of the government strategy to use media to manipulate public opinion. I tested the effectiveness of propaganda by giving the messages that appeared in real media to participants of the study, beforehand dividing them into several groups. Each group received one message discussed above and one of the groups received a message with no connection to religion. The results of the experiment demonstrate the statistically significant effect of propaganda, in particular negative messages