Projected changes in the likelihood of an extreme single-year agricultural drought event at different Global Warming Levels (GWLs), following [51].

left: Percentage change in the likelihood of extreme soil moisture drought at GWLs of 4°C (top), 2°C (middle) and 1.5°C (bottom), with “extreme drought” defined locally as the 10th percentile of anomalies in total soil moisture in individual grid boxes. Likelihoods are calculated using the whole CMIP6 ensemble (, and all ensemble members are treated as equally likely potential outcomes, Right: probability distribution functions of regional mean soil moisture anomalies for the Mediterranean (MED), South American Monsoon (SAM) and West Southern Africa (WSAF) regions [52], at 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C GWLs. The solid vertical line shows the baseline, i.e., 50th percentile in 1995–2014. The dashed vertical line shows the 10th percentile for 1995–2014, defining “extreme drought” at the regional scale. Projections used the SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario to maximise the number of ensemble members at higher GWLs, but global patterns of change are very similar for all scenarios (cf. [51]) and for any given GWL. Source: From IPCC, Cycle 6, Working Group 2, Fig 4.18, 2022.