The Relationship Between PARCC ELA 8 Performance and Performance on AP Exams

This quantitative study is primarily intended to examine whether district level performance results from Grade 8 ELA state assessments can help to predict future passing rates on AP exams. The participants for the study are all 218 K-12 school districts in New Jersey, all of which generated results across score levels and passing rates for PARCC testing in the academic years ending in 2015-2017. District level data were also examined for possible predictive validity on AP passing rates in 2019-2021 across categories including demographics, college entrance exams taken in high school, and participation rates in AP/IB coursework and exams, most specifically in the two ELA content areas. All datasets were collected from the New Jersey Department of Education’s publicly available annual data reports, and the datasets are broken into three testing cohorts corresponding to their Grade 8 year and then anticipated Grade 12 year: 2015/2019, 2016/2020, and 2017/2021. Employing regression analysis, the research found that there were correlations between passing rates on the PARCC and future AP/IB passing rates, as well as with other variables. Ultimately, based on district level trends, the outcomes support practitioners using state assessment data as part of a compendium of closely analyzed data points culled from internal and standardized measures to help identify students who could potentially benefit from inclusion in the pipeline for AP coursework and exams