The Study of the Relationship between Real Estate Market and Stock Market Before and After the Real Estate Tax

[[abstract]]自2010年起，臺灣政府為抑制房地產價格飆漲及實現居住正義，陸續推行一系列打房政策，對臺灣不動產市場造成不少衝擊。房地合一稅自2016年1月1日施行以來，已逾4年，本研究欲了解房市因政策受到影響的同時，是否會連帶影響股票市場。樣本期間為2012年第三季至2020年第四季的台股加權指數及內政部住宅價格指數、信義房價指數、國泰房地產價格指數，以誤差修正模型，探討房地合一稅實施前後股市與房市之間的關聯性。實證結果顯示：(1)房市與股市會同向變動。(2)股市會領先房市變動。(3)房地合一稅後，對房價有抑制效果。(4)房地合一稅後，股市與房市具交互衝擊效果。[[abstract]]Since 2010, the Taiwan government in to curb the soaring real estate prices and achieve housing justice, a series of housing policies, Taiwan's real estate market has caused a lot of impacts. The real estate tax since January 1, 2016, has been implemented for more than 4 years, the study to understand whether the real estate market will affect the stock market when the policy is affected. The study sample includes the Taiwan stock market index and the ministry of the interior housing price index, Sinyi housing price index, Cathay housing price index, from Q3 2012 to Q4 2020. We use the Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine the relationship between the real estate market and the stock market before and after the implementation of the real estate tax. The empirical results show that: (1) The real estate market and the stock market will move in the same direction. (2) The stock market changes will lead to the real estate market changes. (3) After the real estate tax, it has a restraining effect on housing prices. (4) After the real estate tax, the stock market and the real estate market have an interactive impulse impact