When Volatility of Housing Market Met COVID-19: A Case of Taiwan’s Listed Construction Industry

[[abstract]]新冠肺炎──壟罩2020年的黑天鵝，造成全球生命安全及經濟產業重大的衝擊，此波疫情延燒至2021年仍不見停歇。本研究主要探討臺灣房市與營建類股在新冠肺炎爆發期間所產生的影響，選取50檔臺灣上市營建股為研究樣本，以中央流行疫情指揮中心(CECC)發布「禁止非本國籍人士入境」之訊息宣告日作為事件日（2020年3月19日），採用事件研究法，以檢測防治新冠肺炎擴散所宣告之政策是否對臺灣上市營建股產生異常報酬率。同時，本研究也透過迴歸法分析營建業公司之營運能力、獲利能力、償債能力來觀察臺灣營建業公司之股價報酬率是否因重大事件的影響而產生改變。研究期間為2016年第1季至2021年第1季，並將樣本研究期間分作整體、事件日前與事件日後，應變數為股價報酬率，主要自變數為總資產週轉次數、營業毛利率、負債比率、好時價房價指數、住宅交易量。實證結果顯示，中央流行疫情指揮中心宣布新冠肺炎之政策「禁止非本國籍人士入境」對臺灣上市營建股股價報酬率有顯著之異常報酬產生；其次，營建類股股價報酬率受重大事件產生變動，表示臺灣營建業公司確實會受重大事件的影響而產生改變。[[abstract]]COVID-19—A black swan in 2020, caused a significant shock of global life safety and economic industry. The pandemic spreads to 2021 and the end is not yet in sight.This study mainly explore the relationship between housing market, construction stocks in Taiwan, and COVID-19, aim fifty Taiwan’s listed construction stocks for study sample and take the day when CECC announced a policy that bar foreign nationals from entering the country in response to the continued spread of COVID-19 as the Event Day (March 19, 2020). Using Event Study method to explore and analysis the impact of COVID-19 on the abnormal returns of the Taiwan’s listed construction stocks. Meanwhile, the study also uses regression analysis to explore the operating capacity, profitability and solvency of construction industries if a major event affects construction stock price during the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2021, and divide the sample period to entire, before the event, and after the event. The dependent variable is RET, and the dependent variables are total assets turnover, gross profit, debt, housing index and house trading volume. The results show that the policy of COVID-19 causes Taiwan’s listed construction RET produces a significant and stock return. Secondly, Taiwan’s construction stocks RET changes due to a major event, it indicates that the constitution of Taiwan’s construction industries are affected by a major event