A Study on the Correlation Between the Macroeconomic, Renting Market and Housing Market

[[abstract]]台灣房市節節高升，加上通貨膨脹，所得追不上物價水準導致一般民眾負擔不起房價，退而求其次只能選擇租屋。在未來景氣狀況不明的情形下，是選擇租屋好還是買房好?成為多數人的問題。所以本研究擬運用向量自我迴歸分析法，以2012-2021年台灣房市為樣本，探討總體經濟、租屋與購屋的關聯性。本研究實證發現: (1) 租金與房價會影響利率與所得，並且具有因果關係。(2)利率和所得與租金會影響房價，並且具有因果關係。(3)利率與所得和房價對租金則無顯著因果關係。[[abstract]]With the rising housing prices in Taiwan, and the effect of inflation, the income cannot keep up with the price level. As a result, people cannot afford housing prices, and they can only choose to rent a house. Under the circumstances that the future economy is unpredictable. Is it better to choose to rent or buy a house? It has become a question for most people. Therefore, this study use the vector autoregression model to explore the correlation between the macroeconomic, renting market and housing market. We using the data of Taiwan market from 2012 to 2021. The empirical findings of this study are as follows: (1) Rent and housing prices will affect interest rates and income and have a causal relationship. (2) Interest rates and income and rents will affect house prices and have a causal relationship. (3) There is no significant causal relationship between Interest rates and income and housing prices on rents